Letter from the Broker

What the Texas Land Markets Conference
Taught Us About 2026

Key takeaways on land values, interest rates, and the economic forces shaping rural Texas real estate right now.

Capital Ranch Sales  |  Texas Land Markets Conference  |  2026

As I write this, we are on day three of steady rain here in the Texas Hill Country — with more in the forecast. Praise God! After months of dry ground, it feels like a fitting backdrop to share some genuinely encouraging news about the land market that carries its own sense of renewal.

Last month, our team made the trip to San Antonio for the Texas Land Markets Conference — an event that always delivers real, data-driven insight into where the rural real estate market has been and where it’s headed. This year was no exception. What follows are my top takeaways from the conference. In the months ahead, we’ll unpack each of these topics in greater detail and explore what they mean specifically for buyers and sellers of rural land in Texas.

Here’s what stood out.

The Texas Economy: Steady, Strong, and Getting Back to Long Term Trends

One of the clearest messages from the conference was this: Texas real estate is the single largest contributor to Texas GDP growth. Not energy. Not tech. Real estate. That’s a remarkable headline, and it reflects both the depth of demand and the scale of development happening across the state.

Presenters were consistent in their assessment that while the broader economy isn’t “booming” in the frothy sense we experienced post-COVID, it is normalizing — returning to long-term, sustainable growth trends. For the land market, that kind of stability is often more valuable than a boom. Predictable growth supports confident decision-making for buyers and realistic expectations for sellers.

A key data point driving the forecast: Texas total personal income continues to rise year over year, and it remains the most influential variable in their modeling. When Texans earn more, they invest more — and rural land is a prime beneficiary of that investment.

The bottom line from the economists in the room: Texas is not just holding its own nationally — it is outperforming the nation, and 2026 is projected to be a stronger year for the state than 2025.

“Texas real estate is the #1 contributor to state GDP growth — not energy, not tech. Real estate.”

Texas Land Markets Conference, 2026

Interest Rates: The New Normal — and a Reason for Optimism

If you’ve been watching interest rates with one eye and the land market with the other, here’s the grounding perspective from the conference: 6–8% interest rates are the norm. That’s where we are today, and rather than treating current rates as an anomaly to wait out, savvy buyers and sellers are adjusting to this as a baseline.

That said, there is measured optimism on the horizon. Forecasters at the conference projected that mortgage rates could ease to the 5–5.5% range by year-end 2026. For land buyers who have been sitting on the sidelines waiting for relief, that’s a meaningful signal — not to wait longer, but to understand that the window for today’s pricing combined with improving rates may not stay open forever.

Rural land financing has always operated somewhat differently than residential mortgages, and the buyers who work with experienced lenders in this space tend to fare far better than those who approach it like a home purchase. We’ll cover that nuance in a future post.

Land Values & Sales Volume: The Numbers Are Hard to Ignore

For those who want data, here it is — and it’s compelling.

Texas rural land prices rose 6.5% in 2025 — and the momentum hasn’t let up. Through the first quarter of 2026, prices are already up another 6.4%. Meanwhile, transaction volume statewide is up 8% through Q1. These are not soft numbers. This is real demand meeting real supply constraints, and the math continues to favor land owners.

For sellers, this reinforces that the market is active and well-priced. For buyers, it’s a reminder that time in the market consistently outperforms timing the market — especially with a fixed-supply asset like land.

External Factors: Geopolitical Headwinds & Buyer Confidence

One topic that came up in conference discussions was the effect of global uncertainty — specifically the ongoing Middle East situation — on buyer confidence in the domestic real estate market. The general consensus among presenters was that a resolution is anticipated within the next 60 to 90 days, and that when it comes, we can expect a meaningful return to market normalcy.

When geopolitical uncertainty eases, capital that has been sitting on the sidelines tends to move — and historically, hard assets like land are among the first beneficiaries. Texas rural land, in particular, has long been viewed as a safe-haven investment: a tangible, income-producing asset that holds value through economic cycles better than most alternatives.

If that window opens in the second half of 2026, buyers who are already engaged and prepared will be well positioned. Those who wait for the “all clear” signal often find themselves competing in a more crowded and more expensive market.

Looking Ahead: What the Forecast — and Our Gut — Are Telling Us

The formal forecast model out of the conference paints a clear picture: rural land prices will continue rising in 2026, followed by a period of flat-to-slight-decrease growth heading into 2027. That’s the model talking.

But here’s the honest truth from our team after the conversations we had in the hallways, at the dinner tables, and between sessions: our gut is more optimistic than the model. The people closest to this market — the brokers, the lenders, the landowners — are not talking like a slowdown is imminent. They’re talking like people who see opportunity and intend to act on it.

Texas real estate — and rural land specifically — continues to prove itself as one of the best long-term investments an individual can make. That was true before this conference. It was reinforced inside it.

“The formal model says flat to slight decrease in 2027. Our conversations and gut feeling? More optimistic.”

— Charles Armstrong, Broker

What’s Coming Next Month

This post is the overview. Next month, we’ll go deeper — topic by topic — unpacking what each of these economic signals means specifically for buyers and sellers of rural land in Texas. Whether you’re looking to acquire your first ranch, add acreage to an existing operation, or evaluate the right time to bring land to market, these insights will be directly relevant to your decision-making.

Topics we’ll cover in the coming months include:

• How rising personal income in Texas is driving rural land demand
• Navigating land financing in a 6–8% rate environment
• What historical land value appreciation means for your portfolio
• The geopolitical shift and what a more stable global climate means for Texas land buyers
• How to position yourself before the 2026 buying wave accelerates

In the meantime, if you have questions about what you’re seeing in the market — or if you’re ready to start a conversation about buying or selling — we’re here.

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The Market Is Moving. Let’s Make Sure You’re Ready.

Whether you’re buying your first Texas ranch or evaluating the right time to sell, our team brings the data, the relationships, and the experience to guide your decision. Learn more about us.

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