Letter From the Broker
Texas Land Market Update — November 2026: Election Uncertainty Behind Us and Our Best Month of the Year
By Charles Armstrong, Broker & Founder |
As I write this, we are one day past the midterm elections. Historically speaking, we have seen the market improve following midterms, and that is proving true (so far), as the market is up today.
Either way, as you have heard me say over and over, “Nothing stalls the real estate market like uncertainty.” Regardless of how you feel about the results, the election chaos and the uncertainty that comes with election season can finally be put to rest.
The Short Version
- The midterms are behind us, and the uncertainty of election season can finally be put to rest. The market is up the day after.
- The Fed held rates at 3.75%–4.00% on October 28 after September’s hike. Two officials wanted another increase, and the next decision is December 9.
- October was Capital Ranch Sales’ best month of the year for closings, with 12 ranches closed.
- In my opinion, that surge was circumstantial, not a sign of a market shift.
- The fourth quarter has historically been the slowest of the year for our niche market. It will be interesting to see the trend it brings.
After the Midterms
Election seasons bring uncertainty, and uncertainty is what stalls the real estate market. With the midterms now behind us, that uncertainty can finally be put to rest, regardless of how you feel about the results.
“Nothing stalls the real estate market like uncertainty.”
Following Up on the Fed
Last month I said we’d keep an eye on the Fed’s October meeting and report back. On October 28, the Federal Reserve held its benchmark rate steady at 3.75%–4.00%, after September’s quarter-point increase. The vote was 10–2, and both dissenters wanted another hike, so the Fed isn’t done talking about raising rates. Their next decision is December 9.
As I said last month, the Fed doesn’t set the rate on your land loan, but it sets the tone. For now, that tone is holding steady rather than getting tighter.
October: Our Best Month of the Year
Now for a general update specific to our brokerage. October proved to be the best month of the year for Capital Ranch Sales in regard to closings, with 12 ranches closed.
A Surge, Not a Market Shift
In my opinion, this sudden surge that we experienced is not indicative of a market shift. I personally think it was more circumstantial.
Looking Ahead to the Fourth Quarter
It will be interesting to see the trend that the fourth quarter brings, as it has historically been the slowest quarter of the year for our niche market.
See ya next month!
Frequently Asked Questions
Does the market improve after midterm elections?
Historically, the market improves following midterms, and that held true the day after the November 2026 midterms, when the market was up. Election seasons bring uncertainty, and nothing stalls the real estate market like uncertainty.
What did the Federal Reserve do in October 2026?
On October 28, 2026, the Federal Reserve held its benchmark rate at 3.75%–4.00%, following a quarter-point increase in September. The vote was 10–2, with both dissenters favoring another hike. The Fed’s next rate decision is December 9, 2026.
How many ranches did Capital Ranch Sales close in October 2026?
Capital Ranch Sales closed 12 ranches in October 2026, making it the brokerage’s best month of the year for closings.
Does October’s surge in ranch closings signal a market shift?
In Broker Charles Armstrong’s opinion, no. He sees October’s surge as more circumstantial than indicative of a market shift.
Is the fourth quarter slow for ranch sales in Texas?
Historically, the fourth quarter has been the slowest quarter of the year for the farm and ranch market Capital Ranch Sales works in.
Related Reading
- Letter From the Broker — October 2026: What the Fed’s Rate Hike Means
- Letter From the Broker — September 2026
- How to Price a Texas Ranch to Sell
- Understanding Farm and Ranch Financing
Sources
- The Motley Fool — Midterm Election Year Stock Market History (S&P 500 performance after midterms since 1874)
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System — Implementation Note (FOMC decision, October 28, 2026)
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